Becoming a Better Pilot Means Relying Less on Luck

Article No. 3 in “From the Examiner’s Chair”

Every pilot has benefited from a little luck.

That statement sometimes surprises applicants during a practical test, but I believe it is true.

When a student pilot makes a first solo flight, they have demonstrated the knowledge and skill necessary for that privilege. Their instructor has determined that they are prepared for the situations they are reasonably expected to encounter. But no instructor can prepare a student for every possible event.

What if the engine catches fire shortly after takeoff?

What if the wind begins gusting well beyond the forecast while they are in the traffic pattern?

What if an accident or disabled aircraft suddenly closes the runway before they can land?

Those events are unlikely, but they are possible. We manage the risk through training, supervision, and sound decision-making. Sometimes, favorable circumstances also play a role.

That is not a criticism of student pilots. It is simply an acknowledgment that experience matters.

As pilots gain experience, something important should happen.

They should begin relying less on luck and more on knowledge, judgment, and disciplined decision-making.

Knowledge Replaces Assumptions

One example I often discuss during practical tests involves airworthiness.

Imagine the autopilot fails before a flight. A pilot thinks, “I’ll just leave it turned off. It shouldn’t matter.”

Many pilots have had that thought.

But that is not how airworthiness decisions should be made.

Title 14 CFR §91.213(d) provides a process for determining whether an aircraft may be operated with inoperative equipment. Simply turning a component off does not automatically make it legal to fly. More importantly, turning something “off” does not necessarily remove electrical power from the component or eliminate the possibility of an internal failure.

Aviation history includes accidents and incidents in which faulty electrical equipment became a much more serious hazard because pilots assumed that “off” meant “safe.”

Knowledge reduces the need to rely on luck.

The more we understand our aircraft, the applicable regulations, and the reasons behind them, the less likely we are to make decisions based on assumptions.

Weather Is Another Teacher

Another example comes up when discussing thunderstorms with instrument applicants.

I may point to a line of thunderstorms with tops reaching 60,000 feet and ask:

“How far would you navigate around this thunderstorm?”

There is not one universally correct answer.

What concerns me is not whether someone answers twenty miles or thirty miles. What concerns me is when the answer does not account for the actual conditions or assumes that the ADS-B weather display tells the whole story.

Now imagine those same thunderstorms are embedded in cloud layers.

It is nighttime.

There appears to be a fifty-mile opening between two cells.

Should you go?

Someone might—and they might make it through safely.

Or they might discover that the weather displayed on the screen no longer represents the weather outside the windshield.

ADS-B weather is an extraordinary tool, but it has limitations. Understanding those limitations is part of becoming a safer pilot.

Again, the goal is not to get lucky.

The goal is to understand enough about convective weather, weather-product latency, embedded thunderstorms, and operational risk that you avoid placing yourself in a situation where luck becomes your primary defense.

Experience Should Reduce Your Dependence on Luck

One of the most rewarding parts of aviation is that learning never stops.

Every certificate earned should make us a little less dependent on favorable circumstances.

Every new rating should improve our judgment.

Every hour flown should add another layer of experience that helps us recognize hazards before they become emergencies.

The goal is not simply to become more proficient at manipulating the controls.

The goal is to become a pilot who consistently makes better decisions.

That is what experience should buy us.

For Flight Instructors

Flight instructors play an essential role in helping pilots make that transition.

Early in training, students often depend heavily on their instructor’s judgment. The instructor selects the weather conditions, chooses the airport, evaluates the aircraft, anticipates problems, and quietly provides a safety net the student may not fully recognize.

That is appropriate at the beginning.

But over time, the instructor must gradually transfer those responsibilities to the student.

It is not enough to ask whether a piece of equipment is required. Ask the student to determine whether the aircraft is airworthy and explain the process used to reach that conclusion.

It is not enough to ask for the recommended distance from a thunderstorm. Present a realistic situation involving darkness, embedded cells, changing conditions, and delayed weather information. Ask whether the flight should continue at all.

Good scenario-based training does more than prepare a student to answer questions. It helps the student recognize when a seemingly acceptable decision depends too heavily on everything going exactly right.

Instructors cannot prepare students for every emergency they may encounter. They can, however, teach them how to slow down, gather reliable information, follow an established process, and make decisions that leave room for conditions to become worse than expected.

That is how instruction gradually replaces luck with judgment.

Preparing for Your Practical Test

During a practical test, I certainly evaluate knowledge and skill.

But I am also looking for something else.

I want to see that you are developing the judgment expected of the certificate or rating you are seeking.

Can you identify risk?

Can you explain why a regulation or procedure matters?

Can you recognize when a situation requires more than simply hoping everything works out?

Can you use available resources and an established decision-making process rather than relying on assumptions?

Those habits will serve you long after your practical test is complete.

From the Examiner's Chair

Every pilot benefits from a little luck early in their flying career.

The best pilots spend the rest of their careers making sure they need less and less of it.

Every lesson learned, every regulation understood, every thoughtful decision made, and every mistake honestly analyzed replaces a little more luck with knowledge, judgment, and experience.

That is one of the clearest signs that a pilot is truly growing.

— Brad Kramer
FAA Designated Pilot Examiner

About the Author

Brad Kramer is an FAA Designated Pilot Examiner based in Evansville, Indiana. He has over 25 years of aviation experience and has conducted FAA practical tests for more than a decade. His goal is to help applicants and flight instructors better understand the principles behind safe flight operations, sound aeronautical decision-making, and the Airman Certification Standards.